| Trump: A Threat to Canada’s Security |
The re- election of Donald J. Trump to President of the United States would present a clear and present danger to Canada’s security. The clear messaging being echoed by Trump is a desire to change American democracy into a Fascist dictatorship, with him as leader. If Trump wins the election, the US will slide from a small “d” democracy to a small “f” fascist dictatorship. For Canada to have a fascist dictator right next door, who has the largest military in the world and is Canada’s largest trading partner represents a potential threat to Canada’s security.
As recently as January of this year, the Trudeau government met to discuss the uncertainty of another Trump Presidency and potential issues (Fortinsky 2024). This demonstrates that the Canadian Government has started to identify what another Trump Presidency could mean to Canada. Given Trump’s past and current rhetoric, along with his support by Private groups like the Heritage Foundation and MAGA Republicans in Congress, Canada should be very concerned with another Trump Presidency.
Trump has spoken the words and actions of a dictator during interviews on Fox News (Colvin and Barro 2023) calling enemies vermin and that he will seek his retribution. He portrays as himself as the sole person to fix the nation’s problems, at times referring to himself as “the chosen one” (McCarthy 2019). He has aligned with dictators like Putin of Russia and Xi of China heaping praise upon them, while admonishing allies like Canada on everything from trade to NATO.
In How Fascism Works, author Jason Stanley lays out 8 elements that are foundational to Fascism: The Mythic Past, Propaganda, Anti-Intellectual, Unreality, Hierarchy, Victimhood, Law and Order and Sexual Anxiety. (Stanley, 2018)
The Mythic Past is used to promote that today the times are bad and that we need to get back to a time when things were great. Fascism has used this Mythical Past against liberals to state how corrupt and unsafe the world is. In the world of the MAGA right today, this is personified by the slogan, Make America Great Again. This presupposes that somehow America is no longer great and change needs to occur to once again to find this nostalgic period. Trump and MAGA want to re-establish the mythical past where no one talked of Racism, LGBTQ rights or that Black History even existed. (Millhiser, 2023)
Joseph Goebbels who was the Nazi Propaganda minister, said, (jewishvirtuallibrary.com, (n.d.))
“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”
Early in the 2020 US Presidential elections, Donald Trump started the Big Lie that if he lost the election that it would have been due to fraud by the Democrats and the Deep State. Trump repeated this throughout the campaign and upon his election loss, he set in motion a violent attack on the Capitol during the January 6 election certification process. To this day he keeps repeating the Big Lie to his supporters, still not having accepted the election results. (Wolf, 2021)
Fascism ideologies are Anti-Intellectual and often attack institutions of Education and Science trying to delegitimize them and then eventually replacing them with those that support their policies. By delegitimizing the institutions debate becomes limited and the narrative becomes reflective of the dominant political policies of the nation. Anti-Intellectual rhetoric was constantly used to attack Science during Covid 19. The US Center for Disease Control (CDC), Food and Drug Administration(FDA), and scientists like Dr. Anthony Fauci were constantly under attack by the MAGA right and Donald Trump himself (Scherer and Dawsey 2020). Often Trump would suggest courses of action that were contrary to what science recommended, for example the use of drugs like Hydroxychloroquine (a malaria drug) to treat Covid. (lovelace Jr, 2020)
Fascism means to replace debate with fear and anger by casting doubt on the institutions that promote debate so the public does not trust them, creating an Unreality. This is done through propaganda to sew conspiracy about why institutions or individuals cannot be trusted. Often these theories are far-fetched with dubious threads connecting them to the person or institution. We need just look at how Trump has reacted to his indictments to see evidence in his attempts to sew an unreality with his constant attacks on Judges, Prosecutors and those who dare challenge him. (Stone, He’s like a mob boss’:legal experts alarmed by Trump’s attacks on judges 2023)
A Hierarchy exists which typifies a fascist regime where equality is not a goal but quite the opposite, where ethnicity and religious beliefs set an order for one’s place in society based on domination of those it sees as less than. At the recent CPAC convention in Florida, Trump during his nearly two hour rambling speech said the following, “in 2016, I declared, ‘I am your voice’, Today, I add: I am your warrior, I am your justice. And for those who have been wronged and betrayed: I am your retribution.” (Bunch, 2023) Trump sets the hierarchy with himself as the savior or dictator.
Fascists believe that those who support the country are naturally lawful by nature (Us), versus those who are lawless and are not lawful by nature (Them). This is how Jason Stanley describes law and order and that the goal in Fascist Politics is to divide people into the two sides of Us and Them. Trump does this at every opportunity he can, and he accuses immigrants of “poisoning the blood of the country” (Layne 2023) or that they are criminals and rapists. (Gabbatt 2015)
Trump repeatedly claims that he is protecting America from the radical left, taking the bullet so to speak and if he is not there to do so they will be coming after all of his followers. Victimhood is a constant theme inside fascist ideology and helps cement the concept of an ‘Us and Them’ inside the nationalist and populist rhetoric that occurs.
Sexual Anxiety in Fascist ideology manifests in its hierarchical structure that men are dominant to women and that both have specific roles to in society, men to provide and women to bear children and raise them for the nation. Anything that would prevent this is seen as a threat and so homosexuality is not considered acceptable in a Fascist state and neither is abortion. Through Trump’s appointed judges, Roe v Wade, which had provided that women had a constitutional right to an abortion in the US, was reversed taking away women’s reproductive rights. (Totenber and McCammon 2022)
Donald Trump has demonstrated time and time again his intentions are that of a fascist dictator. He also espouses one other element found in fascism, violence. In Today’s ISMS, William Ebenstein noted that, ‘The more violent and terroristic fascist movements are, the more popular support they tend to have.’ (Ebenstein 1973) Ebenstein used Germany to support this as fascism was the most popular political movement but also the most violent. Trump has promoted violence in order to portray himself as a strongman for example the using of tear gas and police in riot gear to clear a park for him to have a photo op holding a bible. This the day after Trump retreated into the bunker at the White House due to loud protests outside due to the murder of George Floyd by Minneapolis police (Levin 2021). Trump asked his head of the Joint Chiefs, Mark Milley, ‘Can’t you just shoot them, just shoot them in the legs or something?’ referring to the protestors outside the white house. (Martin and Ermyas 2022)
During the Presidential debate in 2020, Trump when asked to condemn the far right paramilitary group, the Proud Boys, told them to “Stand down and stand by”. (Frenkel and Karni 2020) Trump has incited violence at rallies the pinnacle being on January 6, 2021 encouraging his supporters to disrupt the counting of the Electoral College votes in the Congress and certification of Joe Biden as President. The militia group, the Proud Boys participated in the January 6 insurrection trying to disrupt the vote for Trump. This strikes of similarity to other fascist leaders and militia support, Hitler’s Brown Shirts and Mussolini’s Blackshirts.
Robert Dahl described the political institutions that must occur for a large scale democracy to exist: Elected officials, Free, fair and frequent elections, Freedom of expression, Alternative sources of information, Associational autonomy and Inclusive citizenship (Dahl 1998). Fascism attacks these institutions and Trump has done so repeatedly and as a President will put those who will support him in key cabinet and government positions.
Project2025 talks about placing loyal conservatives into positions in the US government in order to implement a conservative agenda by replacing those who are not loyalist to Trump. In essence, this is a screening of loyalty to Trump and not the key US institution, the US Constitution. The goal is to enable the Presidency with an expansion of power so that he can enact policy without congress approval in areas of energy, media, climate, regulations and the Department of Justice (The Heritage Foundation 2023).
Capitalism both created wealth and was key to the expansion of international neoliberalism after the cold war but in doing so also created incredible income inequality and the seeds of discontentment in America which allows fascism to propagate amongst those who feel life has been against them.
In the book Prelude, Rachel Maddox gives a history lesson on how fascism rose in the United States in the late 1920’s and 1930’s ending with the bombing of Pearl Harbor in 1941. A key point was that the US was going through tough economic times due to the depression and stock market crash. This was a failure of Capitalism and while America suffered, Germany once Hitler took power was rebuilding itself. The American Bund Party came to more prominence and echoed the policies of the Nazi Party and a desire for America to be run by a dictator because of Germany’s economic success and other often racist and bigoted populist ideas.
The threat is that the US under Trump would shift away from being a leader in neoliberalism and democracy and morph towards structural realism based on a belief that power dictates the terms in how states will interact and a desire of the state to achieve maximum power in order to be secure from other states actions.
The importance of power goes back to Thucydides and Realism in International Relations. Human nature was identified as the starting point with self interest and ego triumphing over morality. States exist when they are powerful, then they can survive in the anarchy of international relations. That might makes right and the stronger will dominate the weaker. (Korab-Kaprpowiicz 2023)
Machiavelli also talked of how all means be them moral or immoral are justified to meet a political ends. His ideas on ethics and politics were quite different that those of Plato, Aristotle and Cicero who believed in some degree of morality in politics. This is contrary to Hobbes who saw that individuals would always seek power and only stop seeking power on death. Hobbes saw human nature as egoistic and ugly, and that international anarchy is based on the struggle for power (Korab-Kaprpowiicz 2023).
While many scholars follow the principles in realism many see the state as a unitary actor which makes analysis more readily observable by omitting human nature as a driving force. Waltz in his examination of realism removed the idea of human nature, trying to link the idea that with respect to international relations states works more along the lines of microeconomics comparing states to companies and a need to survive (Korab-Kaprpowiicz 2023).
John Mearsheimer put forth the theory of offensive realism based on five premises (Wagner 2007):
- There is no world government
- All states are capable of using force against other states
- No state can ever be certain that another state will not use force against it
- All states seek to maintain their territorial integrity and domestic autonomy
- States are rational actors.
Here IR and Economics cross. In Economics it would be: 1. Free markets; 2. Companies compete in the free market; 3. Acquisitions both friendly and hostile can occur; 4. Companies want to maximize profit with limited government interference 5. Markets act rationally. Mearsheimer’s premises and economics occupy much of the same space, and connect to Waltz’s theories on IR.
Waltz’s theory on international relations and realism was that states and domestic companies have an interest in survival. In 1970, Milton Friedman published his famous papers on free markets, The Social Responsibility of Business is to Increase its Profits (Friedman 1970). Friedman says at the end, “there is one and only one social responsibility of business–to use its resources and engage in activities designed to increase its profits so long as it stays within the rules of the game, which is to say, engages in open and free competition without deception or fraud.” Think again about what Machiavelli explained that the political end justifies the use of moral or immoral means, while Friedman justifies profit being the sole responsibility of business he is saying the same, you can use moral or immoral means to produce profit, just don’t deceive or fraud people. What about respecting others rights to life, liberty and pursuit of happiness? Anarchy between states in IR is similar to the competitive business practices that companies employ based on self interest and greed.
Freidman’s paper and his theories on the free market were part of a shift in business attitudes towards profits and taxes. Where Waltz talks of IR and business sharing an instinct for survival, for Friedman it is not about a business surviving but maximization of profit is its sole responsibility. This brought about trickledown economics where it was, theorized that by cutting taxes to corporations and the wealthy, a trickle down of wealth would occur to the middle class and spur the economy. That was not the case, in fact it is seen that trickledown has been great for corporations and the owners of production, it has not translated to a benefit to all. In fact Economist often argues if trickle down is actually an economic based policy or politically based (Knowledge at Wharton Staff 2017)?
Like IR, economics tries to pretend the markets will work as rational actors and corporations will act accordingly. After the 2008 financial crisis, former Federal Reserve Chair, Alan Greenspan when asked about the Credit Default Market and how it contributed, Greenspan’s only defense was that he thought the markets would act rationally this time with the instrument, which had been banned after the great depression because of its impact on the financial markets then (Knowlton and Grynbaum 2008). Capitalism is in fact full of greedy actors in search of power and market control for their benefit; the idea of acting responsibly or morally is seen as having no place in business.
Hans Morgenthau asserted that human nature impacts IR, that human nature creates this lust for power and to maximize it. He then inserts the idea of cost-benefit analysis in a hope to incorporate rationality into IR policy, an economic concept to evaluate business alternatives. Morgenthau sees that when a good IR policy fails it is due to the intellectual weakness of policy makers (Korab-Kaprpowiicz 2023). Intellectual weakness could be considered part of human nature and if this weakness is in the form of lacking the ability to critically think, rational options may not be accepted if for example a loss of Power or Status of the nation (or leader) would occur from a rational decision.
Donald Trump epitomizes the image of a Strongman; Ruth Ben-Ghiat identifies this in her book Strongman: From Mussolini to Present. In it she identifies that dictators from Mussolini to Gaddafi all have a particular interest in Power as well as many of these strongmen have vices to women as well as to having great financial motivations, like Putin (Ben-Ghiat 2021). Trump idolizes other Strongmen, like Putin, Xi and Un, all of whom are threatening expansion against their neighbours, Ukraine, Taiwan and South Korea.
Canada faces the issue of a potential leader in the US who wants to be a strongman, who looks and sounds like a dictator. Trump is looking to shift US international relations from what may be considered neoliberalism to a framework resembling neorealism or motivational realism as Charles Glaser points out, motivational realism argues that the state’s greedy motive is what determines their actions and relations with other states. (Glaser 2022)
Canada needs to prepare for the possibility that Trump will turn the US into a dictatorship with the most powerful and sophisticated military at his disposal. Given the anarchy that exists in International relations between states, there is no central authority, institutions or counter balance to the whims of Trump. Motivational Realism takes the concept of self interest into account as to how states behave; this also defines how Donald Trump has approached business. There is no idea of equivalency in business with Trump there always has to be a loser. Michael Cohen noted that Trump ran his businesses more like a mafia organization, with him at the top and untouchable (Cohen 2022).
This puts Canada into a difficult political position with the election of Trump and now having a country with a leader who desires power, adulation and revenge. This will affect a change in how Canada will have to deal with the US, where Canada’s neoliberalism policies on International relations will most likely not be supported by the US as Trump appears to embrace a more isolationist approach as evidenced in his lack of support Ukraine. After his recent visit with Viktor Orban, Trump apparently told Orban that if elected he would not send one penny to help Ukraine (Pengelly 2024). This is particularly concerning given Trumps affinity with Vladimir Putin, who would benefit from Trump’s positions on NATO, Ukraine and Europe.
The US could easily deal with Canada on a military basis if it wanted too. In addition the US has enormous financial leverage on Canada and it could use this as a form of power. While International relations stressed power in terms of military might, it is important to look at the economic power dynamic as well. Agriculture, Energy, Food, Technology amongst other elements of trade and connection, make Canada vulnerable to the whims of how human nature will influence the power and status of the relationship between the two countries. Trump has during the current election cycle announced his plan to institute a 10% import tax on all items entering the US (Goulder 2024). This would impact business in Canada across the country if implemented as the US is Canada’s largest trading partner.
Canada under a Trump presidency will have to take on more of a conciliatory posture to the US, hoping to be able to form alliances with the US. This might become more paramount if Trump does what his former national security adviser John Bolton, predicted from Trumps past actions that he would most certainly want to leave NATO if elected a 2nd term (Suebsaeng and Rawnsley 2023).
Realism teaches that states will work to survive and for their self interest. In most contexts the idea of human nature does not come into play preferring to accept the state as a unitary or rational actor. Hobbes thought of man as horrible due to their own goals of self interest, which is best exemplified by Capitalism itself and the pursuit of profit with limited restrictions.
Greedy states fall towards motivational realism where now human nature comes into being and self interest is seen to influence a state’s actions, with the leader or dominant elites being those who benefit the greatest in terms of power, income and wealth. Trump as President will embrace policies that benefit himself and those around his orbit.
The potential threat of a Trump Presidency is that the US becomes a fascist dictatorship and the rule of law changes as a result allowing him unprecedented powers. The US could use its economic or military dominance to invoke policy to gain power and dominance and in doing so, place Canada in a weaker position. For Canada it should be of great concern to potentially have a Fascist Dictatorship, with greedy motives and power obsessed political and economic structure supported by the largest military in the world right next door.
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